Trump may not find Venezuela so pleasant

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The following is the opinion and analysis of the writer:

Mort Rosenblum

FLAYOSC, France — Donald Trump recently told his new best pal, Elon Musk, that if by some miracle he loses, they should seek refuge in a far safer place than the “horror show” that Kamala Harris would make of the United States: Venezuela.

Two phrases will be useful. Detenga el robo should endear Trump to President Nicolas Maduro as a kindred spirit: Stop the steal. But two minutes after looking around outside Miraflores Palace, he would likely need sácame de aquí: Get me outta here.

U.N. human rights experts reported last week that Madero intensified his “harshest and most violent” repression after declaring himself the winner in July 28 elections he plainly lost. Considering Maduro’s murderous 10-year reign, that is saying a lot.

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Trump seems to have forgotten his threat to invade Venezuela in 2017, backing an opposition politician more committed to democracy and less hostile to the United States.

My first job abroad was at the Caracas Daily Journal in 1964 on a long break from journalism school in Tucson. Venezuela’s descent from riches to rags since then makes crystal clear why the job of U.S. president demands skilled labor — and why Congress matters.

Venezuela back then had a thriving middle class, which shared the benefits of rich oilfields. It was hardly perfect, but it worked. About the worst thing I remember is a national penchant to mix good Scotch whisky with Coca-Cola.

I covered the country’s first orderly transfer of power, from Romulo Betancourt, respected across Latin America, to Raul Leoni, a lawyer-politician in horn-rimmed glasses who built heavy industries, along with roads and bridges to unify the country.

During his term, Leoni defeated a leftist guerrilla army without much fuss. Fidel Castro sent aid in hopes of establishing a South American foothold. But the rebels had so little rural support he gave up in disgust.

The press was lively and free. On Inauguration Day, I stuck so close to Leoni that another reporter and I got shoved behind him onto a small balcony. The masses below cheered all three of us. If there were goons or guns, I didn’t see them.

Soon after, I moved to Maracaibo, a lively modern port city of long lunches, late nights and traffic jams. Nearby oilfields pumped rich crude from proven Venezuelan reserves now estimated at 303 million barrels, the world’s largest.

Early this month, a New York Times piece reported, “Maracaibo no longer exists.” Among grim photos of squalor and hungry people, it began:

“The city is rife with abandoned houses, some of which look like bombs were dropped on them, because homeowners tore windows and roofs off to sell for scrap before they took off on journeys to Colombia, Chile and the United States.”

Venezuela’s oil minister rallied Middle East producers to form OPEC in 1960. But after the 1973 embargo, he foresaw rocky times. “Ten years from now, twenty years from now, you will see,” he said. “Oil will bring us ruin ... It is the devil’s excrement.”

Venezuela nationalized the petroleum industry in 1976. PDVSA, a state monopoly, explored for new reserves while collecting royalties from foreign companies that exploited old ones. It found little and cost a lot.

Chavez was elected in 1999 with backing from both the far left and diehard right-wingers nostalgic for the old dictator days. He used PDVSA funds for social programs, which rankled conservatives. It was his piggy bank, as one U.S. diplomat put it.

As Chavez grew more isolated and ailing, he moved closer to Cuba before he died. Maduro, then vice president, won an election by 1.5 percent in 2013. He continued Chavez’s policies but lacked his populist charisma.

By 2016, inflation was 800 percent, and 95 percent of Venezuelans fell below the poverty line. In 2017 alone, according to U.N. estimates, Maduro’s special forces killed 5,287. The violent crime rate roared.

More than 7.7 million people have fled in the last decade, mostly to neighboring countries. Half the population of 28 million is desperately short of food. Maduro’s thugs and bandit gangs run roughshod.

This is why statecraft is so complex for the historic Colossus of the North in Latin America, as well as the world beyond. Legislators protect big oil interests by nature and because they need campaign funding. Human rights advocates want to apply pressure.

Both favor sanctions, which seldom work. Despots find enough wealth to enrich inner circles and generals. Poor people get poorer. Threats ring hollow without action. Teddy Roosevelt’s “big stick” is no longer enough. And it makes people hate the United States.

Domestic policy can bring unintended backlash abroad. Barack Obama, not Trump, made America energy independent. Its oil exports supplied world markets at lowered prices. That hit Venezuela hard.

History shows the best approach is carrots, not sticks. Smart diplomacy is about saving face. With negotiation in private, targeted aid can motivate authoritarians to moderate harsh rule in their own interest. Fewer people uproot themselves to emigrate.

Kamala Harris is good at this. In the shadows, she has restored aid to Central American countries that Trump had stopped, while persuading leaders to ease up on repression.

Venezuela is a tough case because of so much backed up hostility. The United States can hardly take in all who want to emigrate. But with careful screening, it benefits from some. And outside aid makes life less miserable for others who are turned away.

Venezuela has made some progress in the past few years. The government’s Vuelta a la Patria (Return to the Homeland) program is bringing Venezuelans back home with financial enticements.

Still, the traffic southward from the United States remains limited. My bet is that if Trump loses, neither he nor Musk will be making the trip.

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Arizona Daily Star Renowned journalist Mort Rosenblum, a Tucson native, writes regularly for The Arizona Daily Star.

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