In the wake of Edmundo González’s landslide victory over Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential elections and the Maduro regime’s subsequent crackdown, moves by the leaders of Brazil and Colombia to find a way forward diplomatically have been troubling from the start in their deference to Maduro.
Now, by proposing that Venezuela carry out a second election, Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro have thoroughly discredited their efforts and have shown why it is essential that the United States reassert its leadership on Venezuela.
In an election that was neither free nor fair, the Venezuelan people voted overwhelmingly for González. In addition, hundreds of thousands of people assisted in carefully planned election observation efforts that allowed the opposition to break through the regime’s secrecy and make public the voting tallies for a large majority of polling stations. Still, the Maduro regime declared victory while cracking down on opposition leaders, unleashing its collective militias on adversaries, and silencing political discussion.
Last Friday, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights condemned Venezuela over its state terrorism practices, including violent repression, arbitrary detentions and political prosecutions. The regime’s repression has resulted in at least 1,300 detainees and 24 deaths.
Opinion
While some governments lined up to recognize Maduro (China, Cuba and Russia) or González (several democratic governments in Latin America) as the election winner, Lula and Petro have refrained from acknowledging a winner, instead insisting that the Maduro regime provide transparency around voting tallies while working to bring Maduro and González together for talks.
Demanding transparency in the elections is appropriate. The Organization of American States also unanimously called on Venezuela’s National Electoral Council to expeditiously release the detailed election records at the polling station level.
However, neither Lula nor Petro brings much credibility to this effort. Lula’s efforts last year to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine did not gain any traction in light of his comments echoing Russian propaganda about the war. Though Petro continues talks with Colombian criminal groups aimed at bringing “total peace” to Colombia, he has been unable to reduce violence or prevent criminal groups from expanding their territory. The two leaders’ ideological commitments hinder their ability to serve as honest brokers, neither seeming willing to voice concern about the repression that has followed the election.
The Lula-Petro approach appears to be giving Maduro what he wants most —time and relief from pressure. In the weeks since the election, Maduro has been able to assert control over the streets and prevent any defections among Venezuela’s military command or other actors aligned with the regime. The logical strategy for Maduro is to go along with this process, with the full confidence that neither Lula nor Petro is likely to make any uncomfortable demands, instead prioritizing maintaining ties with him. Moreover, with their most recent proposal to hold a second election, Lula and Petro have created unnecessary confusion and further damaged their credibility, especially with opposition leaders.
So far, the Biden administration has not articulated its own strategy and has supported efforts by Lula and Petro. President Joe Biden briefly added to uncertainty when he inadvertently said he supported the idea of a second election, although this was quickly walked back by the White House. The result of this lack of U.S. leadership has been a confusing series of proposals and statements and a Venezuelan democratic opposition on the defensive, with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado needing to make it clear that the very idea of an election redo is “insulting.”
It is not too late for the Biden administration to assert itself and help shape negotiations so that they advance the clear desire of the Venezuelan people for change. Specifically, the Biden administration should engage with Lula and Petro to ensure that talks with the regime begin with the acknowledgment that the Venezuelan people chose González on July 28, and that they aim to create a path for him to assume the presidency.
Second, the Maduro regime should not be given an indefinite amount of time to produce voting tallies. If it doesn’t comply by a certain date, efforts should shift toward certifying the opposition’s voter tallies. Last, negotiations must be predicated on Maduro ending his crackdown; if he does not relent, he should pay a price.
Venezuela’s future will be decided by Venezuelans, not by diplomatic efforts. However, for Venezuelans to have a chance of bringing Maduro’s tyranny to an end, the United States must reestablish leadership and ensure that negotiations maintain pressure on Maduro. There is still time for the Biden administration to correct course and help Venezuela find its way to a democratic future.
Daniel Batlle is an adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute. He held senior roles at the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development during the George W. Bush administration.
Part of our series The Unraveling of Latin America. This essay discusses how the failed efforts of Colombia and Brazil’s government are helping the Maduro regime, who claimed victory in the Venezuelan elections.
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Publish date : 2024-08-20 19:30:00
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