Donald Trump has nominated Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) as secretary of state, a decision that will bring far-reaching changes to U.S. foreign policy. In a revolutionary approach, Rubio will likely advocate for a support-for-resistance strategy as a way of stimulating change in totalitarian states from within. Rubio has a long record in Congress advocating for human rights, as well as promoting U.S. support to nonviolent resistance movements in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia.
In a 2020 essay for the Journal of International Affairs, Rubio argued for U.S. support for grass-roots protest movements like the anti-Maduro protests (Venezuela), the Green Movement (Iran), and the Umbrella Movement (Hong Kong). Based on Rubio’s appointment, we expect that the new Trump administration will attempt (1) to restore democracy to Venezuela, (2) launch an influence campaign for change in Iran through movements akin to “Women, Life, Freedom,” and (3) a broader and more nuanced crusade to influence the behavior of the Chinese Communist Party by highlighting its human rights abuses around all of China. To advance these agendas, the United States must simultaneously focus on empowering resistance movements and weakening the state’s resilience and its capacity to sustain mass repression.
In the case of Venezuela, undermining Maduro’s government requires continued U.S. pressure on the regime by constricting its energy revenue, a critical component of its repressive apparatus. This means maintaining and strengthening sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and banking sectors. Furthermore, Venezuela’s transformation into a friend of U.S. adversaries—including Iran, Russia, China, and Hezbollah—elevates it as a significant security threat to the United States. In light of this, the White House should consider extraordinary measures, including covert and overt operations, to weaken the regime’s resilience.
Additionally, the U.S. should increase political support and communication with elected President-in-exile Edmundo González, while also taking both actions to support María Corina Machado, who is currently in hiding within Venezuela. Public U.S. support for these opposition figures not only lends greater legitimacy to their cause but also reassures Venezuelans that, in a post-Maduro era, their country would have the support of a stable, powerful ally rather than being left in chaos. This U.S. backing, as well as that of like-minded regional allies, can lay the groundwork for a coalition of Venezuelan power-brokers seeking a transition of power toward democracy.
Venezuela represents the weakest link in the grouping of authoritarian regimes hostile to U.S. interests. The next critical target is Iran—America’s principal adversary in the Middle East. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the United States has attempted various strategies to support the Iranian people’s resistance against the Islamic Republic’s repression. However, inconsistency, delayed responses, and a lack of persistence have hindered effective U.S. support. For instance, Rubio criticized the Obama administration’s neglect of the Green Movement in 2009–2010, a shortfall echoed by the Biden administration’s tepid support for the Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2022. These missed opportunities have left Iranians without the robust U.S. backing they need.
That being said, the United States and the Iranian people now find themselves at a new juncture: severe sanctions, widespread protests in Iran, and ongoing conflict in the Middle East have all significantly weakened the regime’s resilience, presenting another opportunity for the United States to bolster popular resistance. In this context, while the United States should continue to pressure the regime by targeting the revenue sources that fuel its machinery of repression, it must also take a more direct approach to assist Iranian resistance efforts. For example, the United States could provide Iranians with access to free internet services, as it has done for Ukrainians. Reliable internet access is essential for communication and coordination among Iranian citizens. Yet, in past uprisings, the regime has hindered communication by filtering, slowing, or even shutting down the internet, severely hampering resistance efforts.
Additionally, the United States should increase not only the cost of participating in the regime but also supporting it. Many of these regime supporters travel to Western countries for medical or personal reasons and hold investments or residency in countries like Canada. The United States should accompany sanctions and travel bans on these individuals with active efforts to prosecute those who travel abroad. A precedent was set in 2019 when Sweden detained, prosecuted, and later released Hamid Nouri, a key figure in the 1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners.
Meanwhile, as the United States supports the Iranian people’s resistance, the White House should avoid actions that could discourage them. For example, imposing broad travel bans on the Iranian public not only demoralizes the people but also fuels the regime’s anti-American propaganda.
The final and most important priority in a support-for-resistance strategy remains efforts to change the behavior of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP is conducting ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, as well as the Tibetans in the Tibet Autonomous Region and beyond. Rubio must highlight these human rights abuses and address them comprehensively. In his own words, “Support from the United States can take many forms, including statements of moral support, imposing targeted sanctions on those suppressing freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, developing internet access tools to combat censorship, and providing safe haven to those persecuted.”
Simultaneously, the United States must support Taiwan’s free choice to integrate into greater China or to remain autonomous. Support includes arming, equipping, and training the Taiwanese armed forces, maintaining contingency plans to protect it from invasion, and continuing freedom of navigation operations in the Taiwanese straits.
The appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary of state will have far-reaching consequences for U.S. national security. For the first time since the Cold War, the United States may embark on a support-for-resistance campaign, not against communism but against totalitarian regimes. This strategy can prove extremely effective, with the likely top priorities consisting of Venezuela, Iran, and China.
Dr. Robert S. Burrell is a senior research fellow at USF Global and National Security Institute.
Dr. Arman Mahmoudian is a research fellow at the USF Global and National Security Institute and an adjunct professor at the USF Judy Genshaft Honors College.
Image: Maxim Elramsisy / Shutterstock.com.
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Publish date : 2024-11-29 17:51:00
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