Would Trump Really Flee to Venezuela To Escape a Conviction by Jack Smith — Or Prison in New York?

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President Trump’s jest on Monday to one of the world’s richest men, Elon Musk, that the two could soon be dining on arepas in Venezuela throws into sharp relief the legal jeopardy facing the 45th president just five weeks before he is to be sentenced in New York.

The remark came during an exchange on X that was marred by technical glitches but nevertheless was, according to the platform, watched by more than 1 billion people. Trump told Mr. Musk that “if something happens with this election, which would be a horror show, we’ll meet the next time in Venezuela, because it’ll be a far safer place to meet than our country.”

The 45th president appeared to be referring to his contention that the South American country, in the throes of unrest following the re-election of its president, Nicolás Maduro, has sent violent criminals to America. That vote is widely viewed as marred by fraud. Dozens are dead and thousands wounded in the protests and ensuing crackdowns that have followed the vote.

The idea of an American president in exile is one that is no longer impossible to imagine in the wake of the four criminal prosecutions launched against Trump. He has already been convicted in New York on 34 counts of falsification of business records. Sentencing is set for next month.

At least one lawmaker, Senator Schatz of Hawaii, wrote on X in respect of Trump’s Venezuelan musings: “It doesn’t sound at all like he’s kidding, and it does sound like he’s thought about this.”

Venezuela does not have an extradition agreement with America. Despite vast oil wealth, its economy is in such shambles — after years of catastrophic mismanagement by socialist governments — that tens of thousands of its citizens are fleeing to America. There are plenty of fortified, wealthy neighborhoods and luxury accommodations in certain, gated quarters of the seething capital, Caracas.

Could Trump and his retinue find sanctuary there from the clutches of Special Counsel Jack Smith, District Attorney Alvin Bragg, and District Attorney Fani Willis? The 45th president would first need to let bygones be bygones with Mr. Maduro, whom the Trump administration sought unsuccessfully to oust. Mr. Maduro is backed by Russia and Communist China.

After Trump was convicted by the Gotham jury, he met virtually with a probation officer, who will compile a pre-sentencing report for Judge Juan Merchan. Comments like the one Trump made to Mr. Musk could find their way into that report. While guilt or innocence in criminal trials is the purview of a jury, judges have the responsibility to assign what is in their reckoning appropriate sentences.

President Maduro during a news conference at the presidential palace at Caracas. AP/Matias Delacroix

Trump’s legal situation is murky at the moment, as he is challenging those convictions on the basis of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling in Trump v. United States. The decision that official presidential acts are presumptively immune has upended Mr. Smith’s January 6 case, which now returns to Judge Tanya Chutkan’s courtroom for a “mini trial” to determine which evidence from the indictment can survive the high court’s exacting standard that prosecutors like Mr. Smith are required to meet.

The former president’s single legal victory so far was Judge Aileen Cannon’s decision to dismiss the 40 charges against him related to the retention of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. That flowed from her finding that Mr. Smith’s appointment by Attorney General Garland was unconstitutional. The documents case was widely seen as the strongest one faced by Trump, and the Espionage Act charges as the most serious. Mr. Smith has appealed.

None of this, though, means that Trump is out of danger. It is possible that Judge Merchan will find immunity unavailing in the New York case. If Vice President Harris wins the White House, Mr. Smith would have plenty of time in a new administration to pursue his two cases up and down the appellate ladder. That is, unless Ms. Harris follows President Ford’s example and pardons her predecessor in the interest of national unity. Her repeated labeling of Trump as a “felon” does not suggest an instinct for clemency.

If Ms. Harris becomes the 47th president and Mr. Smith eventually secures a conviction in one or both of his cases, the prospect of prison would become more imminent for Trump. There is also the conviction in New York and the case, now frozen, brought by Ms. Willis. A future Republican president — or Trump himself — would be unable to pardon any state convictions.

There’s a long tradition of leaders fleeing to exile when ultimately they fall from power. Trump could find an example in Haiti’s “Baby Doc” Duvalier, Ukraine’s Viktor Ynukovych, Zaire’s Mobutu, and Cuba’s Fulgencio Batista. He could also look to examples of prominent Americans such as Marc Rich and Edward Snowden, who successfully eluded federal prosecutors from overseas exile. Rich was eventually pardoned by President Clinton.

While prosecutors have never contended in court that Trump is a flight risk — that would require adducing evidence to persuade a judge that his liberty should be curtailed pending trial — the former president has on occasion joked about the possibility of embarking on an expatriate era. He told a crowd in October 020 that if President Biden won, “Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”

After his bail was set in Georgia, he took to Truth Social to reflect: “The failed District Attorney of Fulton County (Atlanta), Fani Willis, insisted on a $200,000 Bond from me. I assume, therefore, that she thought I was a ‘flight’ risk — I’d fly far away, maybe to Russia, Russia, Russia, share a gold domed suite with Vladimir, never to be seen or heard from again.”

Trump added, tongue firmly implanted in cheek, “Would I be able to take my very ‘understated’ airplane with the gold TRUMP affixed for all to see. Probably not, I’d be much better off flying commercial — I’m sure nobody would recognize me.” Risk of flight is a consideration in respect of bail in Georgia. Judge Merchan is no doubt considering the likelihood that Trump never sees the inside of the clink as he ponders whether to sentence him to prison.

Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, who himself served time in prison, tells Newsweek that the former president ought to be considered a risk to evade American justice because “he has multiple aircrafts that can take him overseas” and “has properties overseas in Ireland and Scotland.” Those nations, though, unlike Venezuela — or Russia — have extradition arrangements with Washington.

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Would Trump Really Flee to Venezuela To Escape a Conviction by Jack Smith — Or Prison in New York?

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