Following a year of intense wildfire activity in 2023, 2004 began with a contrasting wildfire situation around the globe, with wildfires typically expected at this time of year in the upper ASEAM region and in tropical South America. Wildfire emissions in the Upper ASEAN region have been generally below average in the first four months of the year, while in tropical South America emissions have, in some places, been the highest of the last 22 years for the period. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS*) has been closely monitoring the situation, providing forecasts and analysis. Let’s take a closer look.
The fire season in the Upper ASEAN region typically occurs between January and May each year. For the 2024 season, fire emissions have generally been below the 2003-2023 average for the period in the upper ASEAN region (including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam), however, the region has experienced some increased fire emissions at the end of the season in late April and early May.
Animation of daily mean aerosol optical depth analyses over SE Asia for March 2024. Source: CAMS.
In Myanmar, Fire Radiative Power (FRP) values were generally well below average until the start of April, but increased later in the month with some days well above average and continued at fairly typical values until the end of the month and into the first two weeks of May. Laos saw an increase in FRP values at the start of April and again at the end of the month, resulting in several days above average estimated carbon emissions from the start of the year until mid-May at around 25 megatonnes.
GFASv1.2 daily total fire radiative power (top row) and total estimated carbon emissions (bottom row) from 1 January to 15 May for (l-r) Myanmar and Laos. Source: CAMS
Throughout March and April, overall daily total FRP and estimated emissions were at or below average in Cambodia. Meanwhile, FRP values in Thailand and Vietnam were mostly below average in January-April and into the first half of May. Notwithstanding the generally below average emissions, the fires in the region still resulted in significant smoke pollution and degraded air quality across the region
GFASv1.2 daily total fire radiative power (top row) and total estimated carbon emissions (bottom row) from 1 January to 15 May for (l-r) Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Source: CAMS
The Amazon region has been in a state of exceptional drought since the middle of 2023, driven by low rainfall and high temperatures. This has created conditions for increased wildfire activity and some regions of tropical South America experienced higher than usual fire emissions in January-April 2024.
Animation of daily mean aerosol optical depth analyses over South America for March 2024.
FRP values in Colombia fluctuated around average levels for the first four months of the year, while across other parts of tropical South America, i.e., Venezuela, Brazil’s Roraima state, Guyana and Suriname, FRP values were consistently above average across the first four months and into the first two weeks of May. Consequently, while emissions in Guyana, Suriname, and Venezuela were the highest in the CAMS record for the time of year, Colombia’s emissions were average. Total wildfire carbon emissions in Venezuela from 1 January to 15 May were around 25 megatonnes, while in Brazil’s Roraima state and the country as a whole, estimated wildfire emissions were the third highest in the CAMS dataset at around 5.4 megatonnes for Roraima and around 14 megatonnes for Brazil.
GFASv1.2 daily total fire radiative power (top row) and total estimated carbon emissions (bottom row) from 1 January to 15 May for (l-r) Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana and Suriname. Source: CAMS
In Bolivia also, FRP values were significantly above average in January and continued to be above average for the following three months, except for a slight dip to below average levels in mid-April. FRP values in the country were significantly above average in the first two weeks of May. As a result, wildfire carbon emissions in Bolivia from January to 15 May were the highest in the GFAS dataset for the period, at over 2 megatonnes.
GFASv1.2 daily total fire radiative power (top row) and total estimated carbon emissions (bottom row) from 1 January to 15 May for (l-r) Brazil and Bolivia. Source: CAMS
The fire season in Mexico and Central America typically runs from March through to the end of May peaking in the second half of April. FRP values for Mexico were at or below average for the first three weeks of the month but increased to be above average in the final week of the month, continuing at around average levels throughout April, and increasing to above average in the first two weeks of May. A similar dynamic was observed in Central America, with FRP values rising sharply around 25 March and then remaining at or below average throughout April, with some daily surges to significantly above average, particularly towards the end of the month and in the first two weeks of May.
GFASv1.2 daily total fire radiative power (top row) and total estimated carbon emissions (bottom row) from 1 January to 15 May for (l-r) Mexico and Central America. Source: CAMS
As a result, estimated wildfire carbon emissions in Mexico and Central America were higher than average from 1 January to 15 May, at almost 15 megatonnes in Mexico and just almost 8 megatonnes in Central America, where wildfires in Nicaragua (almost 2 megatonnes), Guatemala (just under 2 megatonnes), and Honduras (around 1.2 megatonnes) contributed the largest share of emissions. The fire season is still expected to continue for another couple of weeks and CAMS will continue to monitor the atmospheric impacts of wildfires in the region as they develop.
Nepal has seen more than 4,500 wildfires this year across the country, which is nearly double compared to last year according to government data. From around average values at the start of March, FRP in the country soared to above average in the middle of the month. A dip to below average values in the second half of March was followed by significantly above-average FRP throughout April, easing off in the first two weeks of May. As a result, wildfire carbon emissions from 1 March to 15 May were the third highest in the last 22 years, based on the GFAS dataset, at just over 1 megatonne.
Meanwhile, across the border in India’s Uttarkhand state FRP values were below average in March but increased in April to significantly above average in the second half of the month before dropping again at the start of May. Estimated wildfire carbon emissions in the state were the seventh highest since CAMS records began in 2003 at just under 0.2 megatonnes.
GFASv1.2 daily total fire radiative power (top row) and total estimated carbon emissions (bottom row) from 1 January to 15 May for (l-r) Nepal and Uttarakhand, India. Source: CAMS
CAMS provides regular up-to-date information on the location, intensity and estimated emissions of wildfires around the world, as well as tracking smoke transport and composition. To learn more about CAMS monitoring of wildfires and smoke, visit our page on Global fire monitoring.
*CAMS is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with funding from the European Commission.
Source link : https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/2024-begins-contrasting-wildfire-dynamics-around-globe
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Publish date : 2024-05-17 03:00:00
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