The world is transitioning to a multipolar order with the U.S. losing its uncontested dominance as powers like China, India and alliances such as BRICS rise.
In Latin America, the U.S. and China have long competed for influence. Washington increasingly views China’s rise as a threat to U.S. hegemony, fueling bipartisan calls for assertive strategies. Meanwhile, China’s global ambitions, rooted in its national identity, are evident in its assertive policies in the South China Sea, its stance on Taiwan and its expanding influence in the Americas amid waning U.S. interest.
A second Trump presidency could bring renewed focus to Latin America through immigration and trade policies, strengthened ties with right-wing regional allies and Marco Rubio’s leadership as secretary of state. But will these efforts suffice to counter China’s growing presence in the hemisphere?
Trump 2.0 in Latin America
Opinion
Trump’s second term may place greater emphasis on Latin America than his first for several reasons.
First, he’s discussed issues directly impacting the region, such as deportations, trade tariffs and border security.
Second, leaders such as Javier Milei (Argentina), Daniel Noboa (Ecuador), and Nayib Bukele (El Salvador) are aligning with a potential Trump administration, with Milei’s recent meeting in Florida highlighting this growing connection.
Lastly, Trump’s appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary of state marks a significant shift, as he is the first Hispanic to hold the position. A seasoned political figure with strong congressional backing, Rubio is known for his hardline stance on dictatorships, focus on countering China’s influence and commitment to reinforcing the Monroe Doctrine.
However, mass deportations and protectionist measures could alienate Latin American governments, especially left-leaning ones, pushing them closer to China.
China’s role in Latin America
Chinese investments, such as the $3.5 billion Chancay Port project, address concrete needs in Latin American countries, offering solutions that the U.S. has not matched. Its control over key infrastructure, like ports surrounding the Panama Canal, not only enhances trade logistics and fosters economic growth in the region, but also may pose threats for the U.S., amplifying concerns about Chinese military influence in Latin America.
The Chinese economic model, heavily reliant on state subsidies and underpricing, currently makes Chinese goods and investments attractive. Regardless of ideology, governments across Latin America, like Argentina under Milei, have engaged Beijing for trade and investment. The U.S. lacks similar state-backed enterprises but could leverage tools like the Development Finance Corporation, or DFC, more effectively.
The Chinese economic model may be unsustainable due to over-reliance on state subsidies, rising debt and an aging population. Internal challenges like slowing growth, unemployment, inequality and dissent could further hinder China’s global ambitions.
U.S. strategic response
To regain influence in Latin America, the U.S. must adopt cooperative strategies as aggressive tactics could drive countries closer to China.
Trump’s transactional approach may lead the U.S. to use trade agreements to incentivize countries to reduce reliance on Chinese investments.
Expanding U.S. institutions like the DFC to counter Chinese infrastructure projects could provide tangible benefits while reinforcing U.S. influence.
However, Trump’s preference for right-leaning governments risks further dividing U.S. influence in the region. And additional strategies, like strengthening soft power or promoting regional multilateralism, are unlikely as they require a long-term, cooperative approach that contrasts with his transactional style and broader focus on global issues like Ukraine and the Middle East.
Cristina Guevara is a Latin America policy analyst and writer. She previously served as a policy and legislative adviser in Panama’s National Assembly. She is currently pursuing a master’s degree at University College London.
Part of our Opinion series The Unraveling of Latin America, this essay offers analysis of how the incoming Trump administration might strengthen American interests there.
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Publish date : 2024-12-25 18:30:00
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