There is no shortage of speculation about what Mr Trump’s second stint as president might entail for this or that region of the world. Where Guyana is concerned, President Irfaan Ali limited himself to looking forward to working closely with the incoming American administration and further strengthening the close ties that exist between Guyana and the US. This kind of message is de rigueur on such occasions, of course, and is not so dissimilar from what 70 heads of state across the globe would have said to the President-elect.
In contrast, Mr Bharrat Jagdeo, perhaps with a hint of smugness and certainly with a far more parochial focus than characterized the head of state’s communication, said his party was optimistic about collaborating with the incoming US administration to counter the ‘false narratives’ circulated by the opposition.
“For the past several years they have been meeting US government officials and have been telling a bunch of lies to them,” DPI quoted him as saying. “ … [T]hey have a standard mantra – the PPP is racist, the PPP is corrupt, the PPP is incompetent, the PPP squanders oil money and the PPP doesn’t like the United States of America, and we’re in bed with the Chinese.” The General Secretary went on to say that the ruling party had had a strong working relationship with the previous Trump administration, and he expected this rapport to continue from January onwards.
It was the President-elect who was in office during the 2020 attempted electoral fraud here, and his Secretary of State at the time was Mr Mike Pompeo. The BBC has reported that he is one of those who has been tipped as a possible contender for the post of Secretary of Defence. The PPP would no doubt be happy were he to be appointed to some governmental position, since they feel comfortable with him and believe he might be sympathetic towards them.
The hope of recruiting Washington to accept a government perspective on local issues apart, there is one matter in relation to a Trump presidency which concerns everyone, and not just the ruling party. That matter relates to Venezuela’s fraudulent claim to Essequibo. The Biden administration has been uncompromising in its support for this country, and has made a series of gestures intended as a message to our western neighbour, such as visits by the head of Southern Command and the Director of the CIA. Everyone wants to know whether this policy would continue.
With anyone as unpredictable as the President-elect one cannot be too sure about anything he might do at this stage, although in this instance much will depend on what his approach to Venezuela in other respects is as well. Dr Michael Shifter, associated with a Washington hemispheric think tank, has been reported in El Universal as saying that Mr Trump’s victory was a “big shock” for the region, and that the incoming administration will have Mexico as the centre of regional attention.
Where Venezuela specifically is concerned, Mr Trump’s strategy the first time around was a failure. He had backed Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president, but far from being eased out, Mr Maduro managed to reinforce his position. It was the former President who imposed harsh economic sanctions on Caracas, some of which were partially removed for a time under Mr Biden.
Dr Shifter would not rule out Mr Trump making a 180-degree turn in order to seek an agreement, for instance on migration, which is one of his key issues of concern, as well as facilitating opportunities for friends to do business in Venezuela. It might be added that the President-elect has been very voluble on the subject of criminals among illegal immigrants, and has said that Venezuela sends criminals. This may be a reference to Tren de Aragua, a gang which originated in Venezuelan prisons, and is now spreading its tentacles into various other countries, including the US.
The analyst said that the possibility could not be ruled out – although he was not predicting it – that he would do something similar with Maduro that he had done with Kim Jong-Un. He had heard from some Venezuelan colleagues, he went on, that in conversations during the campaign this was at least something on the table.
A rapprochement between Washington and Caracas with Maduro still in power would not be good news for us, although not all analysts are of the view that that is the direction of future American policy. Dr Erick de la Fuente, a professor of International Relations at Florida International University, like Dr Shifter told Tal Cual he did not think that Latin America in terms of foreign policy was a great priority for Mr Trump, but felt that first we would have to see who he appointed.
That said, he anticipated a “rhetoric change” with a position which would be “tougher” than Biden’s. The reason for this was that the Venezuelan vote was in favour of Trump. “In South Florida, where most of them live, it’s the first time a Republican has won Miami Dade County since 1988.” He went on to say that he thought there would be stronger diplomatic pressure on the Maduro government.
This was a view shared by others reported in Tal Cual, including international expert Juan Francisco Contreras, who sees a worsening of relations between Venezuela and the US to be expected. He said that one of the efforts might be how to get Maduro to “accept the results of July 28”. Certainly the Venezuelan opposition is hoping for that outcome, although it might be noted that the inauguration of the Venezuelan president takes place on January 10, and that of the US one on January 20. Any pressure that Mr Trump wanted to exert in that regard, therefore, could only be done before he acceded to office. If Mr Maduro swears himself in on January 10, the situation becomes more problematic.
Professor Carlos Castañeda of Simón Bolívar University was quoted as saying that “Trump is a man who is satisfied with the exercise of power and loves it. For this reason, he will make demonstrations of power in the face of Venezuela.”
Where Guyana’s situation specifically is concerned, it helps that it is an American company which is so invested in our offshore oil; it is difficult to see Mr Trump tolerating any interference with that even in the unlikely circumstances that he comes to a modus vivendi with Mr Maduro. Despite Caracas’ constant reiteration of its so-called maritime ‘rights’ off our shores, that is not where its greedy eyes are fixed. It is our gold resources on land towards which military preparations are being directed.
In circumstances where Venezuela finds itself under serious pressure from the north, it will be looking to alternative sources of income, gold being the obvious one, since it can be sold illegally through neighbouring countries. World gold prices are unusually high at the moment, and are likely to stay that way for some time owing to the international situation. Would Maduro take the risk of invasion on the assumption that Mr Trump has promised his electorate he will not get involved in overseas military confrontations? Or in a situation where there is a deal with Maduro will he turn a blind eye? It is impossible to predict.
Whatever transpires the lesson is clear. The government has to start doing what it promised last year and still has not managed to get underway: it has to re-educate the population at all levels about what their rights in relation to Essequibo are and what the true history of that county is.
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Publish date : 2024-11-09 11:00:00
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