Christian Pulisic’s scoring ability is only matched by his playmaking talents, the latter of which should be on full display in a high-scoring Panama-USA tilt, as our Copa America betting picks explain.
Jun 26, 2024 • 09:49 ET
• 4 min read
Panama must get a result against the United States to avoid being eliminated from Copa America. The United States can clinch a spot in the knockouts with a win, but they’ve got aspirations of winning the group.
To do so, they’ll need to set themselves up with as many goals as possible, and will look to punish a Panamanian side they’ve crushed repeatedly on American soil. Find out why that should lead to plenty of goals in our Panama vs. USA prediction for their Copa America odds match on Thursday, June 27.
Panama vs USA picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Over 2.5 (-118 at Betano)
My analysis
The United States cruised to victory against Bolivia, but their 2-0 scoreline didn’t fully reflect just how one-sided the match was. In fact, when you dive deeper into the stats, you realize just how hapless Bolivia truly was.
The USA outshot the South American side 20-6, but all six attempts against the American goal came from outside the box. That’s because Bolivia had only one touch inside the USA penalty area in over 90 minutes of action.
Matt Turner made three saves for the Americans, but he wasn’t truly tested by any of them. It was an easy night for the Yanks at that end of the pitch. At the other end, Christian Pulisic got them on the board just over two minutes into the game, and a goal for Folarin Balogun just before halftime sealed the points.
But the United States should’ve had more goals, I could argue. Ricardo Pepi came into the game for the final 25 minutes, and racked up 1.62 xG as he missed a golden chance and was denied on another. Jedi Robinson registered 0.45 xA from his left back position as he created two big chances, neither of which were converted.
Panama will present a bigger challenge for the Americans, but may also provide more opportunities to score. The Canal Men are missing multiple players in the center of the team, including center back Andres Andrade and midfielder Anibal Godoy.
That won’t stop Panama from pushing numbers forward, as they did against Uruguay. Panama got a goal in stoppage time to get on the board, but they managed 10 shots on the day including four from inside the penalty area. Seven of those came in the second half, as they threatened to equalize before Uruguay scored two late markers.
Seven of Panama’s last nine competitive fixtures have featured 3+ goals, including a 3-0 defeat to Mexico and the 3-1 loss to Uruguay. And while the clean sheet against Bolivia was the second competitive one in a row for the Yanks, it was also one of only three matches from their last nine competitive outings that featured fewer than three goals.
Panama doesn’t tend to do well when they play on American soil, having conceded 15 goals in their last four visits. The USA will be looking to rack up some goals to keep up with Uruguay for tie-breaker purposes, but also will face a bit more threat to their back line. All these factors should lead to at least three goals being scored on Thursday night.
Christian Pulisic odds, prop for today
My best bet
Over 32.5 passes (-122 at Betano)
My analysis
Pulisic’s early goal against Bolivia came from a show with very low expected goal output, but it still cashed for our best prop. However, at +130, I’m not sure I want to bank on him scoring again. He did have a hat-trick against Panama in their 5-1 win in 2022, but the first two goals came from the penalty spot.
I’d rather go for a surer play here and back him to get 33+ passes on the night. His 65 touches against Bolivia were the fifth-most on the team, and the most of any non-defender. He turned those into 39 passes, which also led all forwards and midfielders.
That’s not by accident. Pulisic continues to be the top playmaker for the Americans, and tends to be heavily involved in the buildup playing lots of 1-2s with teammates. In their two Nations League matches this season, he had 52 passes in 120 minutes vs. Jamaica and 28 passes against Mexico — although he was subbed off before the end of a match where Mexico had nearly as much of the ball as the Americans did.
The USA should dominate possession here, which means plenty of chances for him to get on the ball. Panama will look to pressure him and force him to give it up, as they did against Uruguay’s top playmakers. That should lead to plenty of passes for him, and a fairly comfortable cash for us.
Panama vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5
Christian Pulisic 33+ passes
Both teams to score – Yes
The final piece to our same-game parlay sees both teams finding the back of the net. Panama lost one of their best forwards when Puma Rodriguez sprained his shoulder, but they’ll still have players who can hurt the Americans on the counter-attack.
One complaint many American fans have about Gregg Berhalter’s teams is that they sometimes tend to sit on a lead in the second half and invite pressure from opponents. Panama won’t quit until the final whistle, and they’ll find a goal before the referee signals the end of the match.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Panama vs USA odds
Panama
USA
+875
Moneyline
-250
Over 2.5 (-118)
Total
Under 2.5 (-105)
+380
Draw
+380
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-26.
Panama vs USA game info
Location:
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date:
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Time:
6:00 p.m. ET
Not intended for use in MA.
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