Foreign analysts have deemed today’s presidential election in the United States one of the closest in the recent history of American politics.
And local political analysts say the outcome of the race remains far too close to call.
In US-based polls up to last night, Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump appear to be running neck and neck.
T&T political analysts said they could not deduce, based on recent polling and trends, whether the Vice-President or former president would emerge victorious in the 2024 race. The outcome may likely depend entirely on today’s voter turnout, they say.
“It is too close to actually call who may be the victor in this electoral race. It is that close an election,” said analyst Dr Maukesh Basdeo in a telephone interview yesterday.
His views were shared by political scientist Dr Shane Mohammed, who compared polling to the US’ 2000 presidential elections between Al Gore and George W Bush.
“The political analysts and pollsters are currently predicting quite cautiously based on the latest polls because of the neck-and-neck races and the changing numbers as polls are done. In this regard, a prediction as to who will win the election isn’t definitive,” he said.
Asked for his opinion, Dr Winford James told the Express, “I don’t know who it may be as the polls have been neck and neck…..One cannot say who will win.”
‘It will impact us’
For Trinidad and Tobago, analysts say the election results will likely have a definitive impact on the country’s relationship with the US – one of its biggest allies and largest trading partner.
Minister of Foreign and Caricom Affairs Amery Browne yesterday referred to the elections as being ‘profoundly consequential’ to the people of the hemisphere.
“Given the long-standing and very productive relationship we maintain with the United States of America, the Ministry of Foreign and Caricom Affairs has monitored the build-up to the 2024 US presidential election inclusive of positions espoused by both of the main candidates,” he said.
According to Basdeo, a Kamala Harris victory may see a slight shift in the diplomatic relationship between Port of Spain and Washington, while a Trump presidency is expected to bring a ‘radical shift in foreign policy’ not only locally, but also in the wider world.
One of former president Trump’s major campaign issues of illegal immigration, he said, could potentially have a ripple impact within the Caribbean. With deportation measures reportedly in the pipeline, he said should Trump be sworn into office this will directly have an impact, though he said the scale of this could not yet be predicted.
“I think a lot of people within the Caribbean basin and hemisphere would have taken a lot of what was said on the campaign trail concerning immigration and trade policies as things that may directly impact us as a region. When you look at the illegal immigrants it may be those involved in crime and incarcerated and so on. The most direct impact will be on persons being deported back to countries within the hemisphere,” he said.
In addition, he said a second Trump presidency may affect the country’s expected cross-border gas deals with Venezuela, which had shown signs of further political instability since its last general elections.
“How Mr Trump deals with issues such as the Venezuelan crisis, because he did recognise that a significant portion of the Venezuelan population are the migrants crossing over to the southern border, and how he treats with what we call the relations with Venezuela, that will have an impact on how our negotiations with Venezuela regarding the cross-border gas talks,” he said.
He added, “Mr Trump’s idea is to protect labour and US business so imposing tariffs on imports is only going to negatively impact the economies of the islands of the Caribbean.”
By contrast, Mohammed said Vice-President Harris appeared to have a “more collaborative” approach with her foreign policy agenda.
He said in the past Trump administration there was evidently “a frosty relationship” between T&T’s Government and that of Trump.
“The current Minister of Foreign and Caricom Affairs, Dr Amery Browne, has done remarkable work to restore our international standing and presence. Additionally, there has been excellent relations between the Biden administration and Trinidad and Tobago especially with VP Harris playing a pivotal role. If she wins, this relationship appears quite promising,” he added.
Mohammed also said that the Caribbean community, and by extension the rest of the world, was taking an interest in the US elections, given the country’s standing as an economic and military superpower in the world system.
International security, trade, foreign policy, energy and immigration policies were among the shared concerns within the international community, he said. In Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean, he said citizens are likely looking forward to seeing issues of foreign aid, climate change and its effect on small island developing states, trade relations and security being addressed.
James: Little differentiation
James however stated that the US foreign policy was intended to ultimately benefit the US, adding that he expected little differentiation between the impact of both candidates on local economics and policy.
“American foreign policy is American foreign policy. We can’t select one candidate and say this candidate will be better suited for Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the world. American foreign policy is not developed to benefit Trinidad and Tobago. There is no distinction between the two parties where foreign policy is concerned. There are one or two differences, but it is not developed to benefit us. If we do benefit, it is by-the-way, it is by chance,” he said.
Asked about the issue of immigration and the potential of deportations, he said, “I heard that talk myself on immigration, mass deportations… in any event, Trump has not been focused on Trinidad and Tobago… His immigration policy is a bunch of words that have not been detailed or fleshed out in any way that one can make sense of. His own party doesn’t know how he is going to proceed with this big plan to send people back home.”
What the polls say
Neither United States Vice-President Kamala Harris nor former president Donald J Trump led polls by more than a single percentage point, both nationwide and across key battleground states, according to the latest New York Times poll.
The New York Times/Siena poll, conducted among 7,879 likely voters in the 2024 battleground states from October 24 to November 2, indicated that both candidates were deadlocked in the final stretch, the race remaining even across the seven states likely to decide the presidency.
In the final wave of the NYT/Siena poll in battleground states candidates were asked whether they would vote for Harris or Trump.
*In Nevada, 46% responded that they would vote for Trump, while 49% responded that they would vote for Harris.
*In North Carolina, 46% responded that they would vote Trump, 48% Harris.
*In Wisconsin, 47% selected Trump, 49% Harris.
*In Georgia, 47% gave Trump the thumbs up, 48% Harris.
*In Pennsylvania and Michigan, respondents were evenly split between the two candidates. *In Arizona, 49% responded to Trump, with 45% Harris.
According to the Times, Harris led among black voters and Hispanic voters.
The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign also found a neck-and-neck race, showing Harris getting support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head match-up, while Trump gets an identical 49%.
The Final Marist Poll, sponsored by NPR and PBS News before election day, Harris edged the former president among likely voters, including those undecided, while Trump maintained a lead over Harris among white voters.
The survey of US adults conducted from October 31 to November 2 indicated that Harris had a four-point lead against Trump, while Trump had a slight lead against Harris among independents.
Fifty-five per cent of likely voters report they have already voted, and Harris receives 56% support among those who say they have done so, the poll said, while Trump (53%) has majority support among those who say they have yet to vote, the poll said.
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Publish date : 2024-11-04 20:33:00
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