Conventions end, race for the White House begins

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A party-nominating convention's most important impact on the political world is their ability to energize the party’s base. Sometimes, there is a polling bump for the candidate after the convention ends.

Historically, the greatest boost since the early 1960s came in 1992 for Bill Clinton. He was not widely known as governor of Arkansas, so the convention gave him a huge boost. His polling number rose 16% following the Democratic convention that year. His opponent that year, George H.W. Bush, the incumbent president, received a five-point bump in his polling numbers from the Republican convention.

In 2020, Joe Biden got a zero percent increase following the convention in his bid to defeat the incumbent, Donald Trump. The Republican convention in 2020 gave Trump only a 1% increase. It is no surprise to discover that tumultuous year, marred by the COVID pandemic, saw no significant change in polling numbers after either convention.

There have been years with no change in polling at all. Other years, there have been tremendous boosts to a candidate’s popularity. Now that both parties have held conventions, the post-convention bump is something to keep an eye on. It could mean the difference in one or the other candidate winning the coming election.

Most election years, both candidates receive at least a small boost. Most of the time, there is a roughly equal boost to both candidates, usually separated by only a couple of percentage points. Only a handful of times has there been a zero percent change or a negative change.

Mitt Romney lost one percentage point in his 2012 race against Barack Obama. John Kerry lost one percentage point in his race against George W. Bush. George McGovern got a zero percent boost in 1972 in his race against Richard Nixon.

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This convention season has come to a close. Both parties put on big shows, bringing out their best, brightest and sometimes most flamboyant personalities in an attempt to boost the candidates to the nation.

It appears that Donald Trump received only a slight increase in positive polling after the Republican convention, although the data is not final. That is not surprising, since everyone is fully aware of Trump and what he represents.

While the Democratic convention has just ended, Kamala Harris stands to gain since she is lesser known than Trump and has a great deal more media attention due to her late entry into the race. It is fair to assume her post-convention bump might be at least a little bit larger than Trump’s because of these factors.

How that will affect the presidential election remains to be seen. The upcoming debate will very likely have a greater impact on the outcome of the race than the conventions, since that would be the first and perhaps only time the American voters will see the two candidates face-to-face. There is only one certainty: Harris can’t come off worse than President Joe Biden did in his debate with Trump. His faltering performance showed American voters that he was indeed too old for the job.

Trump runs a similar risk in debating the much-younger Harris. The race for the presidency is, at least in part, something of a pageant. Trump’s charisma was so much greater than Biden’s that voters saw a dramatic contrast. Trump now faces an opponent who looks much younger and more vibrant. He is now the “old man” in the race and the visual contrast between them will have some impact on the voting public.

Trump’s biggest challenge now was his greatest advantage. He looked younger than Biden and age was the primary factor in the race. With Harris as the Democratic Party candidate, that table has been turned. Trump will have to demonstrate policy acumen, not a strength during his presidency, and he will have to avoid looking old.

While Harris doesn’t have to present nearly as much substance as Trump to do well in the debate, her challenge will be to stay positive. Her greatest advantage in this race is the ability to put forward dynamic, youthful energy. If she manages to avoid a mud-slinging contest with Trump, she could well emerge as the candidate American voters perceive will offer the most positive path forward.

Keep in mind, neither of the candidates needs to appeal to their party bases in the coming debate. The conventions solidified their bases. The debate will be about convincing the swing voters and the very few undecided voters that their path forward for America is the most positive.

Trump needs to avoid what Harris hopes to force him into and that is his negative demeanor. If she can cast the election as positive versus negative, she has a good chance of winning. Trump must avoid that characterization which means he will have to go against his normally confrontational debate style and present a more reasonable, level-headed demeanor than is his normal.

So much comes down to presentation rather than substance in any presidential race. That might not be right, but most of the voting public is more heavily influenced by the public persona of the candidate than by his or her ability as a leader.

Gary Cosby Jr. can be contacted at gary.cosby@tuscaloosanews.com

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