Diplomatic Warfare Is Intensifying in South America

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Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Libya remains gridlocked this week, with a UN-mediated agreement between the rival sides on the appointing of a yet-to-be-determined head of the Central Bank that both would support. We have little confidence in a successful outcome for a compromise candidate. There can be no compromise candidate because there is no desire to compromise. The issue of control over the country’s oil revenues remains unresolved, and that makes whoever controls the CB the kingmaker here.

While Washington continues along a path of inaction with regard to Maduro’s refusal to step down in Venezuela, diplomatic warfare is intensifying in the region, with Venezuela and Argentina issuing arrest warrants for each other’s respective presidents. This additional spat stems from Argentine President Milieu’s move to transfer Maduro’s private plane, which it had seized in 2022, to the United States.

On the Israel-Gaza front this week, as of late on Thursday, Israel had refused the US-backed ceasefire deal. The deal proposed a 21-day truce on the border with Lebanon.

Discovery & Development

Equinor and DNO have confirmed their Heisenberg oil and gas discovery in the North Sea, estimating reserves between 24-56 million barrels of oil equivalent. The Deepsea Atlantic rig drilled a second well, which proved additional oil and confirmed the discovery's size. While another target, the Angel prospect, yielded a smaller, less profitable find,…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Libya remains gridlocked this week, with a UN-mediated agreement between the rival sides on the appointing of a yet-to-be-determined head of the Central Bank that both would support. We have little confidence in a successful outcome for a compromise candidate. There can be no compromise candidate because there is no desire to compromise. The issue of control over the country’s oil revenues remains unresolved, and that makes whoever controls the CB the kingmaker here.

While Washington continues along a path of inaction with regard to Maduro’s refusal to step down in Venezuela, diplomatic warfare is intensifying in the region, with Venezuela and Argentina issuing arrest warrants for each other’s respective presidents. This additional spat stems from Argentine President Milieu’s move to transfer Maduro’s private plane, which it had seized in 2022, to the United States.

On the Israel-Gaza front this week, as of late on Thursday, Israel had refused the US-backed ceasefire deal. The deal proposed a 21-day truce on the border with Lebanon.

Discovery & Development

Equinor and DNO have confirmed their Heisenberg oil and gas discovery in the North Sea, estimating reserves between 24-56 million barrels of oil equivalent. The Deepsea Atlantic rig drilled a second well, which proved additional oil and confirmed the discovery's size. While another target, the Angel prospect, yielded a smaller, less profitable find, the Heisenberg discovery is under consideration for a tieback to existing infrastructure. This discovery could be coordinated with other nearby developments around key production hubs like Troll and Gjøa.

Oil India is set to resume exploration activities in Nagaland after talks with state and central governments, alongside ONGC. The company controls 30 blocks under the OALP, but drilling has been delayed in Nagaland due to border disputes with Assam. While these challenges remain unresolved, a high-level committee has been formed to negotiate and facilitate exploration. Internationally, Oil India is planning to start oil production in Gabon next year, after a successful oil discovery in its jointly held Shakthi-II block with Indian Oil Corp.

Wyoming's latest oil and gas lease sale held Wednesday netted just over $27,000, marking a sharp decline from historical norms as developers show reduced interest. Changes implemented by the Biden administration—including increased fees, regulatory requirements, and the nomination process for leasing—are major factors in this decline–as are the logistical challenges of accessing markets due to its remote location. The oil and gas lease sale offered just 159 acres, a record low under the Biden administration. Expect this to severely impact the state's future oil and gas revenue.

TotalEnergies is ramping up preparations for a historic $9 billion oil development off the coast of Suriname, signaling a significant expansion in the Atlantic oil boom. Although formal approval is pending, the company is securing rig leases and reserving shipyard capacity for a floating production vessel. The project, in partnership with APA Corp., aims to tap offshore oil discoveries dating back to 2020, with production expected by 2028. This investment marks a revival of deepwater exploration in regions like Suriname, Brazil, and Namibia as oil majors pivot back to offshore drilling amid a maturing shale sector.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Azerbaijan and a BP-led consortium have signed an agreement to develop a new natural gas reserve under the ACG oil field, bolstering Baku's commitment to doubling gas exports to the EU by 2027. The reserve, estimated at 113 bcm, is expected to start production in 2025, with Socar purchasing all the output. This deal strengthens Azerbaijan’s position as a key energy supplier to Europe and aids in expanding the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline capacity. The project is crucial for reaching the 20 bcm annual export target within the next three years.

Repsol has acquired a 16.67% stake in Mexico's Block 29 from PTTEP, boosting its ownership to 46.67%. This block, located off the southern Gulf of Mexico, is in the exploration phase and spans 3,254 km2. The consortium has made notable oil discoveries in the area and plans to continue its development efforts. Repsol is also focusing on enhancing its upstream operations in key markets like Mexico, the U.S., and Brazil.

The FTC will bar Hess CEO John Hess from joining Chevron's board as a condition for approving Chevron’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess. This restriction is part of a broader antitrust crackdown on megamergers, similar to the FTC’s decision to block Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield from joining Exxon’s board. Chevron’s deal still faces a challenge from Exxon and CNOOC, which allege it is a move to secure Hess’s valuable Guyana assets. Hess holds a 30% stake in the Guyana Stabroek block, with Exxon and CNOOC owning 45% and 25%, respectively.

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