The economy, which shrank by three-quarters in the eight years up to 2021 before recovering slightly, is creaking as the gap between the official and black market exchange rates has expanded by more than 20 per cent since the election. Annual inflation hit 46 per cent in September, according to the Venezuelan finance observatory think-tank.
“I would have loved to live in Venezuela my whole life, but that’s not an option now and I don’t know what comes next,” said Alfredo, who fled in August. He crossed into Colombia and is en route to the Darién Gap.
A survey by Venezuelan pollster Poder y Estrategia last month found that 26 per cent of respondents were intending to migrate, with 6 per cent already having made concrete plans to do so.
This does not mean they would appear at the US border soon, analysts said. From the Darién, migrants travel more than 2,000km through several Central American countries and into Mexico.
Mexico’s government has stepped up immigration enforcement this year, and the Biden administration has changed the rules to make it very hard to request asylum without an appointment.
The vast majority of Venezuelans now wait months in Mexico for an appointment, creating a backlog of migrants sleeping on streets, in shelters and low-income housing across the country.
“That differential between new arrivals in Mexico and those who can’t actually leave Mexico is going to keep growing,” Isacson said.
Migrants walk in a ‘caravan’ from Mexico’s southern border town of Tapachula last week © Juan Manuel Blanco/EPA/Shutterstock
The tougher measures might dissuade some, but migrant numbers were expected to rise before and immediately after the US election, said Ariel Ruiz Soto, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.
“Smugglers and other bad actors take advantage of the moment to say, ‘this is the time you have to go’,” he said.
The US has pushed for stricter migration enforcement in Mexico and Central America. But its policy on Venezuela has been more erratic.
A year ago the Biden administration — concerned by migrant outflows — hoped to secure democratic reforms from Maduro by allowing temporary sanctions relief on Venezuela’s critical oil sector. But it reimposed them in April after Caracas banned the opposition’s main presidential candidate.
For Karina Sánchez, a 27-year-old manicurist who is saving money in Colombia for the onward journey to the US, the only certainty is that she cannot return to her home country.
“I must make it work because I want a future for me and the two children I left in Venezuela.”
Additional Reporting by Ana Rodríguez Brazón in Caracas. Data visualisation by Keith Fray
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Publish date : 2024-10-26 18:00:00
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